All Weather Portfolio (Ray Dalio) vs Golden Butterfly Portfolio
30-year historical backtest comparison, $10,000 initial investment each.
Bottom line: Both are all-conditions portfolios. All Weather leans on bonds and commodities; the Golden Butterfly leans on equities and small-cap value, giving it a growth edge.
Cumulative Growth
Key Metrics
| Strategy | CAGR | Max Drawdown | Volatility | Sharpe | Sortino |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Weather Portfolio (Ray Dalio) | +6.85% | -21.0% | 8.2% | 0.61 | 0.96 |
| Golden Butterfly Portfolio | +8.54% | -17.6% | 8.0% | 0.82 | 1.34 |
Annual Returns
| Strategy | '06 | '07 | '08 | '09 | '10 | '11 | '12 | '13 | '14 | '15 | '16 | '17 | '18 | '19 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '00 | '01 | '02 | '03 | '04 | '05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Weather Portfolio (Ray Dalio) | +7 | +13 | -6 | +7 | +13 | +21 | +4 | +1 | +17 | -6 | +6 | +11 | 0 | +18 | +13 | +9 | -11 | +3 | +9 | +14 | +4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Golden Butterfly Portfolio | +10 | +10 | -12 | +15 | +16 | +15 | +6 | +3 | +12 | -5 | +12 | +11 | -1 | +15 | +13 | +8 | -5 | +5 | +16 | +21 | +2 | -3 | +5 | +8 | +19 | +6 | +14 |
All Weather Portfolio (Ray Dalio)
Balances risk, not just dollars, across growth, inflation, and rate environments.
Golden Butterfly Portfolio
A five-wing evolution of the Permanent Portfolio that adds growth without giving up its resilience.
Different roads to resilience
Ray Dalio's All Weather is bond-heavy, pairing long- and intermediate-term Treasuries with a smaller stock position plus gold and commodities. The Golden Butterfly is more equity-oriented, with 40% in stocks (including small-cap value) and no commodities.
Both seek to weather any environment, but they get there with very different asset mixes.
Growth versus smoothness
The Golden Butterfly's larger equity and small-cap-value allocation has historically produced higher long-run returns. All Weather's heavier bond and commodity weighting tends to reduce volatility and can shine specifically in inflationary or falling-rate environments.
In 2022, All Weather's commodities helped while its long bonds hurt; the Golden Butterfly's split-maturity bonds and gold gave it a somewhat different, generally milder path.
Choosing between them
Favor All Weather if you want maximum environment-hedging and are comfortable with a bond-centric portfolio. Favor the Golden Butterfly if you want a simpler five-fund design with more equity growth potential. The historical metrics below make the trade-off concrete.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which has higher returns, All Weather or Golden Butterfly?
The Golden Butterfly has historically delivered higher long-run returns because it holds more equities and a small-cap value tilt, while All Weather's bond-heavy design prioritizes lower volatility over growth.
Does All Weather or Golden Butterfly hold commodities?
All Weather holds a commodities sleeve alongside gold; the Golden Butterfly holds gold but no broad commodities, relying instead on stocks, small-cap value, and a mix of long and short bonds.
Hypothetical historical performance based on backtested data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This site is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Full disclaimer