Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator
How much can you spend in retirement without running out of money? This calculator applies the logic behind the famous 4% rule: pick a withdrawal rate and an expected after-inflation return, and see how your portfolio holds up over your retirement horizon in today's dollars.
First-year income
$40,000
≈ $3,333per month, held constant in today's dollars
After 30 years
$1,000,000
remaining (inflation-adjusted) — portfolio survives
| Year | Balance (today's dollars) |
|---|---|
| Year 5 | $1,000,000 |
| Year 10 | $1,000,000 |
| Year 15 | $1,000,000 |
| Year 20 | $1,000,000 |
| Year 25 | $1,000,000 |
| Year 30 | $1,000,000 |
How to read the results
First-year incomeis your portfolio value times the withdrawal rate — the amount you can spend in year one. Because the model keeps that spending constant in real terms, the balances in the table are shown in today's dollars, so you can judge real purchasing power rather than inflated future numbers.
If the portfolio survives your horizon, you will see the inflation-adjusted balance remaining at the end. If it depletes, the calculator shows the year your money runs out. Try lowering the rate or the horizon to see how quickly the outcome changes — that sensitivity is the whole point of retirement planning.
The biggest risk this simple model does not capture is sequence-of-returns risk: a run of bad returns early in retirement does far more damage than the same returns later. Learn more in our guide to sequence-of-returns risk, or test real historical paths in the portfolio simulator's withdrawal mode.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 4% rule?
The 4% rule is a retirement guideline suggesting you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement, then adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year, with a high chance of the money lasting about 30 years. It came from William Bengen's research and the later Trinity Study, based on historical US stock and bond returns.
Is the 4% rule still safe?
It remains a reasonable starting point, but it is a rule of thumb, not a guarantee. It assumes a roughly balanced stock-bond portfolio and a 30-year horizon. Longer retirements, lower expected returns, or poor early-year returns (sequence-of-returns risk) can all argue for a somewhat lower starting rate.
What withdrawal rate should I use?
Many planners use 3.5% to 4% for a 30-year retirement and lower rates for longer horizons. A flexible approach — spending a bit less after down years — can support a higher average rate than a rigid fixed withdrawal. Use this calculator to see how sensitive your plan is to the rate and expected return you assume.
Why does this calculator use a 'real' return?
Because it holds your withdrawals constant in today's purchasing power, it uses a real (after-inflation) return so the balances shown reflect real spending power. If you expect a 7% nominal return and 3% inflation, enter 4% as the real return.
Hypothetical historical performance based on backtested data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This site is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Full disclaimer